In China, the celebration of the New Moon Year began and throughout the week the activity during the Asian part of the session will be muffled. It can be seen above all on the stock market, which grows where the markets are open.
A strong increase in employment in the non-agricultural sector in January (304,000) and an increase in the ISM index for the industry (to 56.5 from 54.1) helped in strengthening USD. After the weekend, this trend is maintained, although the holiday trade does not abound in volatility. EUR / USD falls below 1.1440, USD / JPY approaches 109.80, AUD / USD goes down to 0.7230.
In the stock market, there is no sign of a mixed takeover of Friday's closing on Wall Street and the indexes are going up. Japanese Nikkei225 rose by 0.5 percent. Hang Seng was open only for half a day and gained 0.2 percent. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is closed by the end of the week, and in Korea trade is stopped until Thursday.
On Monday, the 4th of February, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Sentix Investor Confidence data from the Eurozone, Construction PMI data from the UK and Factory Orders data from the US. There is a speech from ECB's Yves Mersch scheduled early in the morning.
EUR/USD analysis for 04/02/2019:
The number of Non-Agricultural employees in the US grew by 304,000 in January. This data is much above the consensus, but it is worth paying attention to the strong revisions down the reading for December. At the same time, it disappointed the increase in the unemployment rate to 4.0% and the dynamics of average hourly wages. In terms of month to month, it took 0.1% only, against a consensus of 0.3%. In year-on-year terms, it amounted to 3.2% and was consistent with consensus. The dollar gained after data, but the movement was very modest.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the first reaction, the pair has fallen towards the 1.1450 level, but then the level of 1.1489 was tested again. Despite the data, the bulls were too weak to break through the technical resistance and the price continue to move towards the technical support at the level of 1.1434. This level might be violated soon and the next target is seen below the short-term trend line (marked in orange) at the level of 1.1411. Potential Head and Shoulders pattern might be in progress as well.
