Trading plan for 08/02/2019:
The Asian stock market is bitter after the US-China trade negotiations
The hopes for trade agreements between the US and China were somewhat dimmed when yesterday US President Trump said he would not meet with Chinese President Xi during his visit to Asia. President's adviser Kudlow confirmed that between the parties there are still significant differences and a "long way to go". The information aroused moderate reactions in the form of falls in USD / JPY, AUD and CNH. However, it must be remembered that negotiations are still underway with the next round scheduled for February 11.
The rest of the currency market remained in tight ranges. EUR / USD 1.1340, USD / JPY 19.70, GBP / USD 1.2950.
The stock market in Asia is getting through the disappointing information on the subject of US-China negotiations. Japanese Nikkei225 lost 2 percent, and Hang Seng fell by 0.1 percent. The Shanghai Stock Exchange only starts on Monday after a week's break related to the celebration of the New Moon Year.
On Friday, the 8th of February, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but global investors should keep an eye on Canadain job marekt data in form of Unemployment Rate and Employmnet Change and Industrial Production data from Italy and France.
AUD/USD analysis for 08/02/2019:
AUD / USD lost 30 pips to 0.7060 after the publication of the RBA Monetary Policy Report, in which the growth forecasts for 2019 were cut to 3% from 3.25% and inflation to 1.75% from 2.25%. For 2020, the growth forecast has been reduced to 2.75%. from 3%, and CPI remained at 2.25%. Among the key external risks, the drop in oil prices was mentioned, and among the domestic ones the downturn in the growth of household income, falling real estate prices and their total impact on the decrease in consumption were specified.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is in a down trend. The recen low at the level of 0.7061 was the new swing low, so the dominance of the bears is clear. The bounce was shallow, but it might be better due to the visible bullish divergence between the price and the momentum and oversold market conditions. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.7116 zone.
Trading recommendations:
All sell orders should be closed now as close as possible to the level of 0.7061 because the bounce up might occur any time now. The target for the bounce is seen at the level of 0.7116.
