For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 116 points, continuing the upward movement on emotions. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after a slight stagnation, the upward movement resumed most likely on a certain emotional mood, even though many traders were waiting for a logical pullback after this kind of impulse. As a result, we have an entry into the range level of 1.3300, where we have formed stagnation. Naturally, the information and news background provided support for this emotional mood. Yesterday, in the late afternoon, the UK Parliament supported Theresa May's proposal to postpone the withdrawal of the country from the EU. At the same time, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel and French President, Emmanuel Macron agreed to to postpone Brexit. Naturally, this attitude was supported by a speculative upward move, resulting to the level of 1.3348 on the trading chart.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have preliminary data on US GDP for the 4th quarter, wherein everything is not so good, since there is a decline from 3.4% to 2.6%.
16:30 Moscow time - GDP (q / q) (4 q.)
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, the word "rollback" suggests itself. From the point of view of logic and of all technical analysis, we have a wide overbought, and a resistance level in the face of the value of 1.3300. But at the same time, we have pretty bad statistics from the United States, and the emotional attitude regarding Brexit still holds the market. Thus, the first thing we consider is the stagnation along the level of 1.3300, where I do not exclude the attempt of bears to break through the current congestion in the downward direction. However, I do not exclude the subsequent return to this level at the same time.
Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions for purchase, as written earlier, overbought is overwhelming, but the emotional mood is preserved. Thus, if we consider the position to buy at a given time, it is already above 1.3350, otherwise we are already looking for the entry point after a rollback.
- We consider selling positions below 1.3275, while the prospect is 1.3220 (first point).
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sector of time frames (TF), we see that there was a downward interest against the background of stagnation of 1.3300 in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term prospects both maintain an upward mood against the background of recent impulses.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 28 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 26 points. In the case of a correction, we can see the volatility equal to the average daily fluctuation.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3300; 1.3200; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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