The Australian dollar ignored decisions and statements of the Reserve Bank of Australia related to interest rates, and only slightly decreased in tandem with the US dollar. In general, the situation in the Australian economy is fairly stable, which does not cause significant concern to the regulator, allowing you to keep interest rates at current levels.
According to the data, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, stating that the rates are in line with forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. The bank expects that inflation will continue to remain low and stable, while core inflation will grow in the coming years.
During the speech, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that the main factor of uncertainty in Australia is household consumption prospects, and now some indicators point to a slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2019.
GDP growth in 2019 is expected to be 3%, as the labor market remains strong, and employment continues to grow significantly with a decrease in the unemployment rate, which could drop to 4.75%.
The RBA Governor also noted that global trade tensions remain a source of uncertainty.
As for the technical picture of the AUD / USD pair, trade is conducted near fairly large levels of support. A break of 0.7050 low could lead to a larger sale and aggravation of the downtrend. If the bulls manage to hold above this range in the near future, the formation of an upward correction will lead to a test of highs of 0.7140 and 0.7180.
Data on the growth rate of activity in the service sector of China in February did not affect commodity assets, even though they were rather weak.
According to the Caixin report, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for China in February 2019 fell to 51.1 points from 53.6 points in January. Let me remind you that the indicator values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. The decline was due to the low number of new orders, in particular due to the weak growth of new export orders. Given the trade conflict, this decline is not surprising.
Yesterday, the data on construction costs in the United States came, which decreased in December 2018 .
According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, expenses decreased by 0.6% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.293 trillion US dollars. Economists had expected spending to rise by 0.1%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, expenses increased by 1.6%.
As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the pressure on the euro can significantly slow down in the event of another unsuccessful attempt to break through support for 1.1305, which is now being emphasized by large buyers of risky assets. Only a confident breakthrough of this range will allow the trading instrument to retain a downward impulse, which will lead to the area of 1.1270 and 1.1230 minimums. If it is not possible to break through 1.1305, the formation of a side channel and a slight upward correction of the euro are quite likely.
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