Over the past trading day, the currency pair British pound/ US dollar showed volatility which is almost equal to the average daily 115 points, as a result of the name of the jump, which did not lead to anything. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote broke through the accumulation of 1.3170/ 1.3220 due to the massive information background at the time, but the bearish heat turned out to be small, and is already in the Pacific-Asian session. Thus, we quickly returned to the framework of the previous stagnation. Now, let's talk about the very massive information background that took place yesterday. Regular debates were held in the British Parliament, where they rejected all eight alternative ways to withdraw from the EU. The only thing that was agreed upon was the fixing of new dates for leaving the European Union in legislation: either on April 12 without a deal, or on May 22. Everything that happens in Britain can be described as one big dead end, and there is literally no more time. In the media, they are trying to exaggerate the topic with yesterday's statement by Prime Minister Theresa May, where some write that she will resign as soon as the parliament accepts the agreement, others say that the resignation is scheduled for the summer, and still others affirmatively state the resignation of Theresa as soon as Brexit takes place. Now, you understand why the trading schedule behaved this way - because there is a complete confusion in everything.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have the final data on the United States GDP for the fourth quarter, where they expect a significant slowdown in economic growth from 3.4% to 2.4%. Naturally, this news will play negatively on the US currency, but do not forget about the general information background of Britain, where things are even worse.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that, returning to the accumulation framework of 1.3170 / 1.3220, the quotation was still under some uncertainty, and the current attempts to return the descending positions clearly confirm this theory to us. It is likely to preserve uncertainty, where traders analyze not just price fixes lower than 1.3170, but already values of 1.3142, comparing all this with the information background, which will continue to spontaneously take off on the market.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Traders consider buying positions in the event of a price fixing higher than 1.3200, with the prospect of a move to 1.3220-1.3250.
- Positions for sale, as written in the previous review, many traders were aimed at fixing prices lower than 1.3170, which, in principle, happened. Positions are now saved, but if there was no entry, then we are waiting for a fix below 1.3142.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 28 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 55 points. It is likely to assume that due to the confusion on the information background, coupled with the news background coming out today, volatility can be maintained at a high level.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com