The situation in the world markets is still quite complicated and confusing yet boring. The failed Brexit of Great Britain, Donald Trump's appeals to the Fed not to raise interest rates and his economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, made a statement saying that it would be nice for the regulator to start lowering them. All of these are happening in the wake of an extremely unclear picture of the negotiations between Washington and Beijing on trade, which continues to have an overwhelming effect on investor sentiment around the world.
In recent months, the foreign exchange market clearly shows this state of affairs. The lateral dynamics of the main currency pairs are supported by mutually exclusive trends. On the one hand, the US dollar is experiencing problems with growth due to the position of the Fed, which at the beginning of this year turned 180 degrees after the last decision at the December meeting to raise interest rates once again. But on the other hand, it is not marked by its decline, which is due, for example, for the European currency by the statement of the ECB about the lack of prospects for raising interest rates against the backdrop of dumping the eurozone into recession. A similar picture is observed in relation to the pound sterling, which remains hostage to Brexit.
A complex and ambiguous situation is emerging with respect to commodity currencies, which stagnate in pairs with the dollar amid falling prospects for higher interest rates, such as RBA, RBNZ, and so on. Their prospects are completely dependent not only on the strength of the dollar but also on the dynamics of prices for commodity and commodity assets. Although, everything here is also incomprehensible.
The Japanese yen is moving only under the influence of a factor of demand or lack thereof on protective assets. In recent months, there was no observed dependence on its movements, in tandem with the US dollar on incoming economic data.
All of the above confirms the assumption put forward by us about the lack of understanding by market players not only of the general prospects for the dynamics of the world economy but also on how the economies of China, the USA, and the eurozone will develop. Will the growth slowdown in the States and the PRC stop falling in the eurozone? So far, the markets are hoping for this, as well as the fact that global central banks will still have to pursue soft monetary policies in the near foreseeable future, which will generally support the demand for risky assets and at the same time inflating financial bubbles. However, this is another story as they say.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD is trading above 1.1215. The decline can possibly continue if the data published today by the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone does not show growth. On this wave, the price can rush to 1.1175 when it breaks the 1.1215 mark.
The AUD/USD receives support against the background of the publication of positive data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of China. If the pair holds above the level of 0.7120, it can continue the upward trend to 0.7145 and then to 0.7165.
