For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 91 points, with the result of literally trampling in one place. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the investor alertness is directly reflected in the trading chart, where the quotation continues to fluctuate within the 1.3000 range level. On the other hand, the information and news background is filled with ambiguity regarding Brexit, where the focus of attention of all market participants is in the emergency summit in Brussels, which is scheduled for today (April 10). There are already many different assumptions regarding the outcome of this event, but first, I would like to go back to the early statement of Donald Tusk. The head of the European Council proposed to the leaders of the 27 countries remaining in the European Union to discuss at the summit the request of Prime Minister Theresa May for the postponement of Brexit.
"The continuing uncertainty presents a problem for our enterprises and citizens. Finally, if we cannot agree on any next extension, there will be a risk of an unorganized Brexit - without a deal," says Tusk in a letter to EU leaders."
What happens? We have repeatedly heard how high-ranking EU officials criticized the postponement and made it clear that for their part, they did everything possible, but again there is a request for a new postponement. Whether it will be approved is difficult to say. In theory, the EU does not want to see big problems and tries to avoid sad scenarios, but at the same time, it is also ready to defend its interests, which we, in principle, see with the current agreement. Thus, the delay, purely hypothetically, has a right to exist, but perhaps the EU will require certain guarantees from Britain, and perhaps obliging actions, such as, for example, participation in elections to the European Parliament, which, of course, England may not like.
In terms of the economic calendar, we have a busy trading day today. Published data on industrial production in Britain, where low rates are expected. In the United States, there are data on inflation, where growth is expected, but it all overlaps, as was already discussed earlier, with the EU summit with a key theme - Brexit.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see the quotes booming within the 1.3000 range, bouncing from 50 to 100 points from time to time, but still being held in close proximity to it due to uncertainty. It is likely to assume that the ambiguous bump within the 1.3000 level will continue, where it is better not to fly to the market ahead of time. It should be clearly understood that we have a strong information background, which is closed by a screen of ambiguity regarding the delay in Brexit. The volatility of the day can be extremely high, and investors are trying to take a waiting position. In turn, speculators try to ride on the waves of panic and consider a number of points for flight, although they are extremely risky.
- Positions for purchase are considered at a price higher than 1.1260 (not a puncture).
- Positions for sale are considered at a price lower than 1.2950.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the background of uncertainty in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday perspective is in a correction phase. The medium-term perspective maintains the initial downward interest. Indicators on smaller TFs, on the other hand, can arbitrarily jump at the moment of information noise.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(April 10 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 37 points. Due to the dense information and news background, the volatility of the current day is likely to be high.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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