4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 42p - 53p - 78p - 48p - 70p.
Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 58p (57p).
The first trading day of the week takes place in low-volatility trading with a small advantage of the US currency. At the same time, the EUR/USD currency pair is being traded inside the Ichimoku cloud, so there is no clear trend as such. As part of the upward movement on Friday, the pair also failed to overcome the critical line Kijun-Sen, so the resumption of the downward movement this week looks more preferable. Also, we draw the attention of traders that the fundamental events are now either ignored by market participants, or the reaction to them should not be entirely logical. This once again leads us to the assumption that macroeconomic data now do not have significant value for traders. For example, several macroeconomic reports were published in the eurozone today, not the most important ones, but the reaction to them was completely absent. The business activity, composite and services indices of the European Union exceeded their forecast values, as well as the retail sales index for March. However, again, there was no logical, but at least a slight strengthening of the euro. Just like on Friday, there was no strengthening of the US dollar on strong news from America. The MACD indicator may turn down in the coming hours, which will return the pair to a downward trend and signal the completion of the correction. On the 24-hour chart, the downward trend is even more clearly visible, a rebound from the critical line, which also increases the chances of resuming the downward movement.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has adjusted to the critical line and may now resume a downward movement. The immediate target for short positions is the support level of 1.1136. A downward turn of the MACD indicator will signal the completion of the correction.
Long positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair above the Ichimoku cloud. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to an upward one, but this is unlikely to happen today.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen – red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span – green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com