Societe Generale and Rabobank experts agree that the monetary policy pursued by the Fed and the ECB has become a less significant driver for the EUR/USD pair than the economic growth indicators of the US and the eurozone.
At the same time, currency strategists of banks have different assessments of the pair's short-term prospects.
Thus, if Societe Generale confirmed this recommendation to buy EUR/USD at the end of April with a target of 1.16, Rabobank believes that there is no need to hurry with the opening of long positions, and market participants should prepare for the fact that the pair will update the multi-month lows.
"On the horizon of six months, the euro will fall in price to the dollar to $1.10, but then the EUR/USD pair will begin a gradual recovery, which will continue next year and will be supported not just by a slowdown in economic growth in the US, but by a slight recession in the US economy," said Jane Foley, chief currency strategist of Rabobank.
Experts of ING Group are also waiting for the fall to the level of 1.10, although they are inclined to believe that soon the imbalance in the economic growth of the US and the eurozone will begin to change in favor of the Europeans.
"Signs of recovery outside the US may encourage investors to switch from the dollar to such long-suffering undervalued currencies such as the euro," said Charles Tomes, portfolio manager at Manulife Asset Management.
According to C. Tomes, his fund has reduced short positions on the euro.
We proceed from the fact that all economic problems are already included in the rate of the single European currency depreciated in recent months. For a reversal of the euro will be quite a little good news," said C. Tomes.
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