EUR/USD – 4H.
The euro/dollar pair performed the second rebound from the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177) and a turn in favor of the US currency. As a result, on May 23, traders can again count on some fall towards the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1102). Bears remain extremely strong. Last night, the Fed published a document, the minutes of the last meeting. From this document, it became clear that the Fed is not going to raise rates in the near future, as "inflationary pressure" remains insufficient. Of course, not without "concerns about the trade war between China and the United States." Thus, the chances of the euro were not given yesterday. Today in the European Union and Germany, there will be the indices of business activity in the sectors of production and services in May. The same indices will be released in the US. This news will again be tracked by traders, but bears will pay more attention to them, as they now own the initiative. Only the consolidation of EUR/USD quotes above the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the EU currency and will allow expecting some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241).
The Fibo grid was built on the extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair retains the desire to continue the process of falling (double rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0%) towards the level of 1.1102. Thus, I recommend selling the euro for this purpose, with a protective order above the Fibo level of 100.0%. I recommend buying the pair after the closure of the rate above the level of 100.0% from the retracement level of 1.1241.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The pound/dollar pair is still under the power of bears. Sellers are now so strong that the pair can not even rollback a little up. Hope for a rollback in the pound is today when the quotes performed a fall to the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2639), and a bullish divergence is brewing in the MACD indicator. However, both of these retracement factors can be ignored by bears, and sales can continue. Closing the GBP/USD rate below the level of 23.6% will increase the chances of a further fall in the quotes in the direction of the next retracement level of 0.0% (1.2437). The consumer price index in the UK in April rose by 0.6% mom and 2.1% y/y. But the forecasts were higher, so traders again did not find factors for buying the pound.
The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
On the hourly chart of the GBP/USD, after quoting the quotations from the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2782), the pair has resumed the process of falling and executed the consolidation under the retracement level of 161.8 % (1.2673). The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the pound quotes only to return to the Fibo level of 161.8%, no more. As a result, the fall of the pound/dollar pair may resume today in the direction of the retracement level of 200.0% (1.2554). Economic indicators are not expected from the UK today, but we should not lose sight of the ongoing Saga of Brexit. There was information that Theresa May may resign just the other day, as many members of the government believe that the Prime Minister has completely lost control of Brexit and the process of withdrawal from the European Union is not progressing and is not going forward. Theresa May's resignation may for some time even cause demand for the pound, as traders may be optimistic about this event.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair continues the process of falling, so I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.2554 with a stop loss order above the level of 161.8%. I recommend buying the pair in very small volumes at the rebound from the Fibo level of 200.0% (hourly chart) with a target of 1.2673 and a protective order under the level of 1.2554.
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