EUR/USD
Last Friday, labor data in the US came out good: outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Employment Change), 263 thousand jobs were created in April against expectations of 181 thousand, the unemployment rate was at its lowest in the last 49 years - 3.6%. Also, the US trade balance in March improved from -72.0 billion dollars to -71.4 billion. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI decreased from 56.1 to 55.5 in the April estimate. Nevertheless, the dollar began to fall, the euro closed the day with an increase of 30 points. In the first hours after the news was released, high volumes were held on the market, and a characteristic picture of asset redemption versus news was taking place. We do not think that speculative sentiment will continue for a long time, since there are no apparent reasons for the medium-term growth of counterdollar currencies.
Today, in the Asian session, oil fell by 2.37%, which significantly affected the commodity currencies and put pressure on the euro. Perhaps, the market's delayed assessment of US data on GDP and on employment, which we mentioned earlier, has begun.
Eurozone data on retail sales in March will be released today, the forecast -0.1%. Tomorrow, the French trade balance may show a decline from -4.0 billion euros to -4.5 billion in the March estimate; on Wednesday, German industrial production in Germany is expected to decrease by -0.5%. The euro has nothing to rely on. We are waiting for the price consolidation below the Fibonacci level 110.0% (1.1155) and a further decline to the Fibonacci level 123.6% on the price of 1.1075.
