GBP/USD
The British pound, more restrained than the euro, met the beginning of the negotiations of Chinese and American representatives on trade. From above, the price was kept, it is still being held, by the MACD line of a four-hour time scale. From the bottom, the downward trend is supported by the line of the daily Marlin oscillator, which stopped at the boundary with the decline territory. On the four-hour chart, the marlin is staying in negative territory.
A negative scenario – failure of the negotiations can cause the pound to increase for a short period of time to the target levels defined by the Fibonacci grid: 1.3061 – the MACD line, which is an independent resistance, goes through this level, further 1.3122, 1.3184... But we do not think that this option will be developed, since strategic investors have not yet entered the game, and they can buy the dollar as a defensive tool, which will be followed by medium-sized investors. In this case, we expect a rapid return of the downward trend with the previously indicated target of 1.2772-1.2814.
At the same time, important economic indicators for the UK are published today: GDP for the 1st quarter, industrial production for March, trade balance for March. Forecasts are moderately negative.
A positive option involves the conclusion of a trade deal. In this case, the price will go down immediately.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com