USD / JPY pair
Today's morning, China has received weak economic data. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 50.1 to 49.4 in May. the indicator of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector remained at the same 54.3 points. Amid aggravating relations between the United States and China, the data was perceived particularly sensitively. The dollar fell 45 points against the yen, pushing the support of the embedded price channel line on the daily chart. Fixing below this line will provoke a further decrease in price up to the January 10 minimum of 107.78.
The current technical situation is completely downward. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line is turning downward. On the four-hour chart, the price was fixed below the balance lines and MACD, while the Marlin line is in the negative zone.
Nevertheless, the USD / JPY pair still has a chance to come back above the trend line of the price channel. The reason may be due to moderately optimistic data from Japan today and evening data on income and expenditure of consumers. Industrial production in Japan added 0.6% in April against expectations of 0.2%. The unemployment rate dropped from 2.5% to 2.4%. On the other hand, retail sales added 0.5%, which is good even if the forecast of 1.0% was more significant. In the US, revenue forecast is 0.3% while expenditure is 0.2%. The probability of price reversal is up about 40%.
