Today is a weekend in the USA and the UK, which means that the two largest trading floors in the world will be closed, which will undoubtedly have a strong influence on the situation on global trading floors. Therefore, we do not expect any major movements in the financial markets.
But let's look at the events of last week, where the main one was the escalation of the trade war with China by the States, or, as it was called, the "digital" war, and, on the one hand, the expected, and, on the other, unexpected departure from the post of British Prime Minister T. May, which occurred earlier than the promised date of June 7.
The global financial markets initially reacted to the situation around the Chinese company Huawei by nervously selling the high-tech sector of the American stock market, but then calmed down on Friday, as D. Trump said that the promised radical measures against the Chinese IT giant will be held. But despite this, the overall picture of the market remains sad. In the center of events is the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, which has not yet seen any end or edge.
The farewell speech of the former head of the British Cabinet of Ministers, T. May, did not have a noticeable effect on the British currency, which practically did not react to the news of her departure. The markets were expecting this event and have already responded to it earlier by the fall of the sterling rate. Now, perhaps, a period of uncertainty and high volatility is rising before the British currency, since it is not clear who will replace the failed soft exit of the UK from the EU (Brexit).
We expect that the strengthening of the political struggle, as well as the restoration of the dollar on world trading floors due to demand. On the one hand, for it as an asset safe haven, especially in pairs with currencies of developing countries, and on the other, due to a decrease in liquidity from The Fed and its vague position regarding the outlook for monetary policy will probably support the US currency, which will continue to grow smoothly, if, of course, the Fed does not think again and signals a possible decrease in interest rates this year.
Forecast of the day:
The AUDUSD pair is recovering on a wave of profit taking and weekend in the US. We expect that its growth will be limited. Perhaps, it will grow to 0.6965, if it overcomes the level of 0.6935.
The GBPUSD on the wave of the government crisis in Britain and the weekend, is likely to remain today in the range of 1.2620-1.2755, if the upper limit of this range stands on the wave of profit taking.
