By the end of the last trading week, the euro / dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 69 points, as a result of having a 50% recovery after a downward move. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have the quotes return to the level of 1.1180 after a steady decline. This recovery is directly related to the rally in pound, where at a similar time there was a rather sharp jump. And due to the high correlation between currency pairs, we saw a similar movement in the direction. Of course, this has something to do with the information background. Brexit, as we already know, has long kept the interest of speculators, since there were rumors saying that British Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing to make big compromises to the opposition. In particular, it concerns the issues of a temporary customs union with the EU, as well as the introduction of uniform rules of market turnover for certain categories of goods and the law that guarantees workers in the UK--the same rights as in the European Union. On these rumors, the pound flew more than 170 points, followed by the euro, but with a smaller amplitude.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in the EU, where they expect a decline from 2.8% to 1.8%.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a characteristic slowdown within the level of 1.1180 (1.1175 / 1.1200). It is likely to assume further talk over the limits of this framework, where traders monitor a clear breakdown of boundaries when placing further orders.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1205.
- Positions for sale are considered in the case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.1170.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term, there is an upward interest against the background of the recent jump.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 6 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 29 points. In case of stagnation, we are waiting for a weak oscillation within the boundaries of the cluster. But if the framework falls, then we can expect acceleration.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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