By the end of the last trading week, the Euro / Dollar currency pair showed low volatility of 36 points. Yet, the correction phase was retained even with this small amplitude. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the long-awaited correction against the background of the overbought dollar has come to our edges, discarding us more than 100 points from the pivot point 1.1112. Considering the general plan, we see that the global downtrend remains on the market and there are no hints of its change so far. The only thing that holds is the pivot level of 1.1112, which is the local minimum of the current year. The key event of the past week can rightly be called the resignation of British Prime Minister Theresa May, who said she would leave the post of leader of the Conservative Party on June 7. Frankly, the news is twofold. On the one hand, waiting for changes in current policy and on the other hand, perhaps even worse. In turn, the market reacted quite positively. The pound was rising in price, followed by the euro. I would call all this as premature fantasies. The Brexit topic will continue to hold the interest of speculators and with the new face of the party leader, Nigel Farage, it may even get worse if it comes to the disappointing withdrawal of a country from the EU without a deal. The news background on Friday had statistics on durable goods in the United States, where they waited for a reduction of 2.0%, which in principle was 2.1%. if it comes to a disappointing withdrawal of a country from the EU without a deal.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have a day off in the United States called "Memorial Day". Thus, trading volumes can be reduced.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the corrective move led us to the value of 1.1215, after which the upward driver began to decline. It is likely to assume that the quote is temporarily nailed to the value of 1.1180, where previously it felt pressure in the form of a mirror level. If the bearish background will gradually return and the quote will be fixed lower than 1.1175, then it makes sense to talk about the restoration of short positions and as a fact of the main move. Otherwise, you can see a temporary bump of 1.1180/1.1220 because of the confusion over Brexit.
Based on the available information, it is possible to expand the number of variations, let's consider them:
- The positions for the purchase were considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.1225.
- Positions for sale are considered in the case of price fixing below 1.1175, with a primary perspective of 1.1135-1.11112.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we can see that indicators in the short term show us a downward interest against the background of a recovery attempt. Intraday and mid-term perspectives are set for an upward interest against the background of a corrective move.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly/quarterly/year.
(May 27 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 25 points. It is likely that volatility can be reduced due to less trading volumes because of the holiday in the US.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
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