For the week, the USD/JPY pair is trading outside the monthly control zone of May, which indicates a 90% probability of a return to the range. Purchases that are open from the June low must be kept.
The upward movement to the 1/2 WCZ of 108.79-108.70 is a priority since this zone is within the monthly May range. Closing of last month's bidding occurred below the average move, which increases the likelihood of a return upward to 90%. Testing of 1/2 WCZ will indicate further priority. As long as the pair is trading below this zone, the downward movement remains a medium-term impulse.
Purchases opened this week should be partially fixed with testing the a WCZ, while the rest should be transferred to breakeven in case there is a consolidation above the level of 108.79.
An alternative model will be formed if the closing of the auction occurs above the level of 108.79. This will allow you to look for purchases early next week. It is important to understand that the probability of implementing this model is 30%, which makes the model auxiliary. Today, the option contract will occur expire, which may increase daily volatility.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com