The G-20 summit, which will take place this weekend and is anticipated by market participants, will be crucial for US-China relations. It should show how the parties are interested in resolving the trade conflict. So far, traders hopes to achieve at least some agreements between the United States and China support high-yielding and risky assets. The dollar at this time continues to be under pressure because of the Fed's announced plans to lower the rate this year and next.
It also became apparent that the Republicans and Democrats, who forever oppose each other, have both agreed that a weak dollar was needed for further prosperity of the United States. It doesn't matter which way this effect will be achieved - by a stream of negative statistics either by lowering the FED rate, or by Donald Trump's tweets.
While Washington clearly set a course for lowering the value of its national currency, the previously oversold British pound is trying to take advantage of the situation and at least partially restore losses. The cautious policy of the Bank of England speaks in favor of the GBP/USD pair growth.
The BOE is very restrained in assessing the prospects for global growth, but still sees the need for tighter policies if his predictions are correct. Judging by the latest reports, the UK economy is not in the best shape: retail sales have fallen by 0.5% for the second month in a row, which has already led to a decrease in the annual figure to 2.3% from 5.1%. Until the Brexit problem is solved, the central bank of England will not go for a rate increase.
As for Brexit, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt quite logically meet in the finals of the struggle for the post of Tory leader, but the latter has no chance of winning. "Without 5 minutes," prime minister - Johnson - actively speaks out on the topic of Brexit and states the need to preserve the possibility of blackmail in the matter of paying compensation for leaving the European Union. The last announced amount was more than 50 billion euros. Boris Johnson will most likely want new negotiations on the subject of "divorce" conditions, but Europe's position is tough and, according to Tusk, the United Kingdom is simply inefficiently wasting time.
However, there was some certainty regarding Brexit, it became clear to everyone that Britain will leave the EU this autumn, no matter what, and no matter who becomes the next British prime minister. Market participants perceived a new certainty rather positively. Thus, the pound may recover to $1.2920-50 in the coming weeks.
