4 hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 34p - 75p - 78p - 19p - 64p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 54p (54p).
On Wednesday, July 24, the EUR / USD pair continues its generally downward movement, despite the fact that volatility has significantly decreased. Today, again, did not bring any positive news to the Eurocurrency. The index of business activity in the areas of production and services in Germany failed, as well as the similar indices of business activity across the eurozone. It does not matter that these were only preliminary values for July, since there is no reason to expect that the final figures will be better. Business activity in the industrial sector is generally a headache for the European Union. The values of the indicator in this area are in the critical area, which captures not a slowdown, but a decline. In America, things are not much, but still better. The business activity index in the service sector increased compared to the previous month. On the other hand, in the manufacturing sector, it fell to the level of 50.0, below which the decline in this area will also be recorded. As in many other areas, the States again defeat the European Union. Yes, business activity in America does not show the best "numbers", but in the European Union things are even worse. Tomorrow, the ECB will announce the results of the meeting. Traders expect either a monetary policy easing announcement or an immediate reduction in the deposit rate. There will also be a press conference by the ECB on monetary policy, at which a restart of the quantitative incentive program can be announced. We do not expect anything optimistic from this event. At best, Draghi and the company will be as neutral and restrained as possible, which may save the Eurocurrency from new sales. Otherwise, the fall in the euro / dollar pair will continue, and Donald Trump will have new reasons to accuse the EU of deliberate depreciation of the euro.
Trading recommendations:
The pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Thus, now, it is again recommended to sell the Euro-currency with the aim of the support level of 1.1101 until the MACD indicator turns upward.
Buying the euro / dollar pair is recommended not earlier than fixing the price above the Kijun-sen line with the first target resistance level of 1.1269, but with minimal lots, as the bulls remain extremely weak.
In addition to the technical picture, we should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com