Market participants did not have time to recover from the unexpected outcome of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, as Donald Trump had already presented another surprise, announcing the imposition of 10% of customs duties on imports from China that are worth $300 billion. In fact, the United States imposed customs duties on all imports from China. We will not argue on how this corresponds to the principles of free trade, which the United States is so vehemently preaching. In any case, today, traders are still not allowed to relax and calmly think over everything that happened, since all the attention of market participants will be focused on the monthly report of the United States Department of Labor. Another thing is that the content of this remarkable document is unlikely to allow any far-reaching conclusions. It is expected that almost all major indicators of the labor market should remain unchanged. In particular, we are talking about the level of unemployment, which is currently at the level of 3.7%, and the length of the working week, which is still 34.4 hours. At the same time, the growth rate of the average hourly wage may accelerate from 3.1% to 3.2%, which of course raises the expectations for the growth of retail sales and inflation. However, the joy will not be complete, since outside of agriculture, 164 thousand new jobs were expected to be created, against 224 thousand in the previous month. Thus, the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, in fact, does not change anything. Unless of course the actual data matches expectations. Well, recently in the market we invariably observe the same picture - a confident strengthening of the dollar. Of course, even a slight negative on the labor market of the United States can hold back the dollar's growth. But only for a while.
The EUR/USD pair, having broken through the ill-starred level of 1.1100, rushed into an inertial move, closing its eyes to all possible cries in the form of an overbought dollar. Analyzing the trading chart in general terms, we see that the quote has moved closer to the psychological level of 1.1000, which by the way reflects the value of 2017, and a pullback has formed at the local overheating of short positions.
It is likely to assume that within the previously passed level of 1.1100, the quotation will slow down, forming a primary fluctuation of 1.1070/1.1100, where you should carefully analyze the price consolidation points. At the same time, we should not forget that in case the downward movement returns, the psychological level of 1.1000 remains below the quote, which temporarily keeps us from further decline. In view of the safety net, it is advised to wait for a pause, at least until the moment of breakdown of accumulation.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the main frame of time intervals on which the indicators are superimposed signal a decrease due to a formed background. At the same time, short-term periods signal an upward interest due to the current pullback.
