EUR/USD
Friday's US employment data came out good. Before the news was released, dubious moods were pumping up in the business media: the labor market is weak, forecasts are overly optimistic - and this pressure played a role - the dollar slightly weakened, as investors were already tuned in to the worst data. The euro grew by 14 points, but the stock market showed corresponding optimistic growth - the S&P 500 + 1.42%. Even the British FTSE100 added 1.10%. The "smart" money market also turned out to be more cautious - it no longer expects a December rate cut, the probability of a reduction in October fell from 86.5% to 78.0% in one day.
136 thousand jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector, near the forecast of 140 thousand, the indicator for August was revised to increase to 168 thousand (it was 130 thousand), the unemployment rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, reaching the level of December 1969 .
Technically, however, there are more clear signs of a weakening single currency. On the daily chart, the price was unable to gain a foothold over the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. Double convergence remains a threat, but the option of turning the indicator down, in which the double convergence is converted to single convergence with the completion of its development on September 3-13, is gaining bonification. We do not exclude a certain "rethinking" by the market of published indicators on employment.
The trade negotiations between the US and China are on the agenda. An agreement is expected to be reached this week. Against this background, a new look at old economic data, including weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, will be different.
On a four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is turning down. To change the trend for a falling price, you need to go below the MACD line (1.0955). A more thoroughly decreasing trend will take shape when the price goes below the signal level of 1.0926. This is our main expected scenario. Price growth to the MACD line on a daily scale, in the region of 1.1060, is possible after the price has consolidated above the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0985).
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com