The quotation stubbornly follows along the range of 1.1080 with a low amplitude, as well as the activity of traders, although there was something to cling to. So yesterday, there was a publication of the text of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where it was clear from the document that the participants positively assessed the prospects for economic growth, and they also believe that negative interest rates are an inappropriate monetary policy tool in the United States. At the same time, the regulator noted that the risk of a slowdown in the global economy will continue to put pressure on the domestic economy. Referring to the FOMC minutes, we can say that in some way the market expectations coincided, the regulator intends to take a pause in actions regarding the interest rate cut and this meeting in December should confirm this.
Today the minutes of the October meeting of the European Central Bank will be published. Let me remind you that annual inflation in the EU slowed down last month, retreating further from the target level of the ECB.
In terms of statistical reporting, we have published applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which should be reduced by 4 thousand [Repeated +2 thousand; Primary -6 thousand.] Then we are waiting for data on sales in the secondary housing market in the US, for October, where they expect an acceleration of 1.4%.
EU 11:30 London time. - minutes of the ECB meeting
In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to move along the control level of 1.1080 with an amplitude of just over 20 points, which signals a characteristic indecision of market participants for further actions. In fact, this kind of movement persists for the third consecutive day, which is by no means a lot, and the delay in the accumulation process should eventually lead to a surge in activity, which many market participants expect.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see a characteristic restraint, where the recovery process, with respect to the elongated correction, is not completed, confirmation of this is the current resistance point in the face of 1.1080, which is restraining buyers.
It is likely to assume that the fluctuation within the frames of 1.1055/1.1083 will continue for some time, where some traders have already entered short positions and hope to work out the control level and restore the recovery process. Other market participants are more restrained waiting for a clear exit of the price from the set boundaries, since there is still a risk of a return to the peak of 1.1180.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.1100.
- Short positions, we consider at a clear phase of the passage of the 1.1055 mark, not a shadow puncture.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators on the hourly and daily periods have taken the upside, but at the same time signaling caution and a possible change of mood. Minute intervals go inside the existing accumulation, thereby the signal is varies.
