The pound continues its sluggish decline, and on Friday, it could be due more to the expectation of today. The fact is that today in the United States is a holiday, on the occasion of the celebration of Veterans Day, which means that there will be very few participants on the market. However, a number of crucial macroeconomic data are published in the UK today. Therefore, it is likely that many traders last Friday, especially from the United States, played back the forecasts for today's data, and these forecasts are not comforting.
Probably the most important macroeconomic indicator that is published today is the third quarter GDP. Even if this is preliminary data, but it is still extremely significant. Moreover, the economic growth rate is projected to slow further from 1.3% to 1.1%. Not only is this in itself not so pleasant, but it will mean that the UK economy is slowing for the second quarter in a row, as at the end of the first quarter, GDP grew by 2.1%, in the second quarter, slowing growth to 1.3%. It's clear that this is a cause for concern, because the economy is slowing down even before Britain left the European Union. Thus, after Brexit, it could be even worse. Nevertheless, in addition to GDP data, industrial production data are also published, which should show a slowdown in the decline from -1.8% to -1.2%. Given that this is still a recession, even a demonstration of positive dynamics, will not correct the negative because of the slowdown in economic growth.
Third Quarter GDP Growth Rate (UK):
It is worth considering the possibility that the data will not be as predicted. And it doesn't matter, for better or worse. Given the absence of American traders, as well as many European ones, since it is quiet and calm in Europe today. From the point of view of the macroeconomic calendar, then any deviations from forecasts, the market will win back tomorrow.
The GBP/USD pair found a foothold in the face of the range level of 1.2770, where it gently stopped and formed a pullback. Therefore, the fluctuation of the past week was low volatility, but nevertheless, a move from one target level to another occurred, which confirms once again the existing borders and the concentration of market participants inside them. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see just the very same month flat of 1.2770 / 1.3000, where in case of a breakdown of a particular border, market participants would receive a new surge of interest in trading positions. It is likely to be seen temporary fluctuation within 1.2750 / 1.2800, which will reflect the formation of quotes at the control level. After that, it is worthwhile to carefully look at the given frames for the points of price fixation relative to the borders, and only then proceed with the execution of trading operations.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider long positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.2800 (+ 5p).
- We consider short positions in case of clear price fixing below 1.2750 (-5p.).
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that hourly and daily periods are prone to further decline. Minute segments, on the contrary, work on the existing pullback, signaling purchases.
