EUR/USD
The US Federal Reserve held an extraordinary meeting of the FOMC on Sunday, March 15, and lowered the base rate from 1.25% to 0.25% with the announcement of the $700 billion QE program, which exactly repeats the "Paulson plan" in 2008. Today, the euro rose by 90 points in the Asian session, but it began to retreat when strong resistance was found on the Fibonacci level of 23.6% on the daily chart. The condition for continuing the decline will be price taking under the daily MACD line, at 1.1070. The 1.0978 goal opens – support for the embedded price channel line.
But at the moment, the price remains in a growing position. The price twice, on Thursday and Friday, tested the support of the MACD line and sharply went up each time. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator shows the intention to turn up.
On the four-hour chart, the target growth level is the MACD line at 1.1300. The market's intention will likely become more clear when the US session opens. The relative calm in the market is explained by the fact that investors were already prepared for such a rate cut, although at the planned time on the 18th. At the scheduled meeting on Wednesday, it is likely and expected that the Fed will target the yields of long-term government bonds. These measures can turn the markets into growth (the euro is much higher than 1.1300), but in contrast to the situation in 2008, when QE was launched almost at the end of the market, now the crisis has not yet been fully disclosed. We only see the financial crisis, but it is likely to deepen into broader economic areas. In other words, market uncertainty has increased. We are waiting for technical signals to form.
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