To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
Statements by US President Donald Trump about the likely removal of quarantine and the resumption of the country's work helped strengthen the European currency, and also made it possible for buyers to protect a fairly important support level in the area of 1.0897, which was an important focus. The 5-minute chart clearly shows the purchases that I advised you to make from this level in yesterday's review. Another strong growth of long positions was recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for April 7, on the euro's fall. Sellers did not stand aside, since there was also a small increase in short positions. However, the growth of the positive delta continued, which indicates a high probability of recovery in demand for the euro in the future. Short non-commercial positions increased from 80,800 to 81,561, while long non-commercial positions jumped from 155,070 to 161,185. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position continued to increase its value to 79,624, which indicates a clear interest in purchasing risky assets at attractive crisis prices. As for the intraday strategy, after the euro moved inside the side channel yesterday, the situation has not changed much. At the moment, an important task for euro buyers is to protect the support of 1.0897, where a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions in the expectation of continuing growth around the new highs of 1.0969 and 1.1033, where there could be problems with the breakout. A consolidation above the 1.0969 level, which was not possible yesterday, will open a direct path to the area of 1.139, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro sharply falls under the level of 1.0897 today, amid the absence of important fundamental statistics, long positions can be returned immediately on the rebound from the low of 1.0834.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
As yesterday, the primary task of the euro sellers is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0969, which will be a signal to open short positions with expectations of a decrease to the support of 1.0897, where I recommend taking profits. Important reports on the state of the economy of the eurozone and the United States are not published today, except for statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve, so the lack of demand for the euro in the area of 1.0897 may lead to a larger decrease in the pair to the low of 1.0834, where I recommend taking profits. If there are no active sales at 1.0969 in the first half of the day, it is best to postpone short positions until a high of 1.1033 has been tested, where we can expect a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the preservation of the upward potential in euros.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger bands
A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0897 will lead to a decrease in the euro. A breakthrough of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.0946 may lead to a larger growth of the European currency.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
- Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
- The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
