To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
Euro buyers' attempt to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.0897 did not lead to anything good yesterday afternoon, and concerns related to the lack of agreement following the Eurozone finance ministers meeting put pressure on the euro, which fell below 1.0897 at the end of the day, indicating an active opposition of sellers. However, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for March 31 showed another increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions, as well as a sharp growth in the delta, which indicates a high probability of recovery in demand for the euro in the future. Short non-commercial positions decreased from 91,070 to 80,800, while on the contrary, long non-commercial positions jumped from 152,360 to 155,070. As a result, the non-commercial net position continued to increase its positive value to 74,247, which indicates a clear interest in purchasing risky assets at attractive crisis prices. As for the intraday strategy, at the moment, the bulls need to return to the resistance of 1.0897, which will allow the pair to maintain an upward trend and lead to a repeated update of the high of 1.0961, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of further decline, and this will depend on the news of the Eurogroup meeting, you can safely return to long positions on the support test of 1.0825, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or open long positions immediately from the week's low in the area of 1.0772, counting on a rebound of 40-50 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR USD you need:
Bears declared themselves at the end of Tuesday, they then actively followed the buyers' stop orders today in the Asian session, defending the resistance of 1.0897. However, in the current conditions, it is best to open short positions only when a false breakout forms at the 1.0897 level, which will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a fall in the area of a large support of 1.0825, which formed yesterday. The longer-term goal of sellers will be at least 1.0772, where I recommend taking profits. In a scenario of growth of EUR/USD above the resistance 1.0897, and it can happen only when there is good news from the eurozone finance ministers meeting, it is best to postpone sales immediately to a rebound until a high of 1.0961 is updated, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which acts as support. Their breakout will further increase the pressure on the pair.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger bands
A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0860 will cause the euro to decline further Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0910, where you can sell immediately for a rebound.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
- Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
- The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
