EUR/USD 4H
The euro/dollar pair overcame a long-term downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe on April 30. Overcoming it gave traders the opportunity to trade for a more confident increase. We hoped that a strong macroeconomic background of the environment would contribute to strong movement. However, in practice it turned out that the level of volatility did not change at all. And indeed, few have changed. Thus, we believe that an upward trend has now formed on the euro/dollar pair.
EUR/USD 1H
In addition to overcoming the long-term downward trend, a new ascending trend line is formed, with four support points on the hourly timeframe. Traders also managed to gain a foothold above the Senkou Span B line, although consolidating is uncertain. Thus, in the short term, the upward trend is confirmed by technical analysis.
As we have already said in fundamental reviews, a rather large number of various reports and events are set for the European Union and the United States today. However, only some of them can attract attention. First of all, the data on the Eurozone GDP for the first quarter and the summary of the ECB meeting. Secondly, the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. However, looking at the reaction of market participants to yesterday's, no less important, events, it becomes clear that traders are going to ignore the fundamental background today. The US currency may continue to be under moderate market pressure due to the fact that more disappointing macroeconomic statistics are coming in from across the ocean. Consequently, there is more reason to suppose a serious contraction in the US economy. However, the situation is no better in the European Union, and today we can verify this. Also, one should not forget about the factor of "market confidence in the dollar", which at almost any moment can lead to new strong purchases of US currency. Thus, first of all, you should still pay attention to technical factors, and not to the "foundation".
Based on all of the above we have two trading ideas for April 30:
1) The first condition for continuing the upward movement is met. The downward trend line was overcome. Thus, we advise you to trade for an increase by aiming for the April 19 high at 1.0990. We believe that the pair can go down from the current positions, as it has already rebounded several times from the resistance area of 1.0890-.0900. Thus, another condition for opening long positions is to secure quotes above the resistance level of 1.0903. The potential to Take Profit in this case is 85 points.
2) The second option - bearish - involves overcoming a new upward trend line and in this case we recommend selling the euro with the first goal being the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator at 1.0808. A rebound from the 1.0890-1.0990 area can also be identified, which will also be a signal to sell. The potential to Take Profit in this scenario will be 45 points.
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