On Monday, investor activity in Asian trading remains fairly low, on the one hand, this is due to weekends in Singapore, Britain and the United States, and on the other hand, with a wait-and-see attitude that they began to take against the escalation of the crisis between Washington and Beijing.
As we previously expected, there is a side range in the main currency pairs in the currency market. There are still two reasons - this is a smooth exit of economically developed, and therefore influential countries from strict quarantine measures amid falling economic activity and strong unemployment, as well as the lack of a vaccine against COVID-19. It is assumed that it will already appear by the end of the summer in Europe and the United States. It is its appearance that will become the trigger for the growth in demand for risky assets. However, this will only happen if the US-China confrontation does not develop into a serious trade war with the robbery of the States and Europe of China. But this is another most important problem.
As the American presidential election approaches, D. Trump will, in our opinion, actively use the "Chinese" card in the domestic political struggle, shifting precisely to Beijing all his miscalculations related to the coronavirus epidemic in America. If this struggle remains only at the level of claims and economically insignificant injections on both sides, then this will lead to an increase in demand for risky assets and a dollar turn down to major currencies, accompanied by the departure of major currency pairs from the side ranges.
As before, we believe that this scenario is most likely. Our forecast for commodity currencies remains the same. We look forward to continued growth in the rates of Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars, and the Norwegian krone.
The euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs seem to balance in the "sides" and beyond, which is associated with internal problems of a political and economic nature both in the eurozone and in Britain. The issue of Brexit and the high economic inequality in the eurozone, which causes the growth of centrifugal forces, which can cause the destruction of the current economic and political order in the region, is relevant here.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair remains in the side range of 1.0770-1.1000. A decline and consolidation below the level of 1.0885 will lead to a decline in prices to 1.0770.
The GBP/USD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.2160. It is possible that it will remain in a narrow range of 1.2160-1.2280 today, but if it breaks through the level of 1.2160, it will rush to the recent local minimum of 1.2075.
