To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:
Yesterday's attempt to push the pair at the beginning of the US session following reports on activity in the US non-manufacturing sector was unsuccessful, and the bears quickly returned the market under their control, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. Unfortunately, I expected the bears to move a little higher, from the resistance of 1.0895, so I could not use the reversal from the 1.0880 level for selling. The euro will remain under pressure following the German constitutional court's decision, as what is happening in the eurozone does not inspire new investors to buy. At the moment, buyers need to return the resistance of 1.0852, similar to how it was yesterday. Consolidating above this range in the first half of the day will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.0882, and the long-term goal of the bulls will be the high of 1.0923, where I recommend taking profits. A number of reports on activity in the service sector of the eurozone countries and the composite PMI index will be released today, which could negatively affect the euro. Therefore, if the pressure on the pair continues, it is best to return to long positions on the support test of 1.0811, provided that a false breakout forms there, or buy immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.0787 and 1.0755, counting on an upward correction at the end of the day of 25-30 points.
To open short positions on EUR/USD you need:
Sellers are fully in control of the 1.0852 resistance, which can be seen on the 5-minute chart. While trading will be conducted below this range, we can expect the downward trend to continue, which will lead to the renewal of new lows in the area of 1.0811 and 1.0787, where I recommend taking profits. Poor data on activity in the eurozone service sector can become an additional factor for the euro's fall, which is expected in the morning. Another false breakout at 1.0852 will be a good signal to open short positions in the euro. In case the bulls return to the 1.0852 level in the first half of the day, it is best to return to selling only on a false break from yesterday's high of 1.0881. You can sell the pair immediately for a rebound after the 1.0923 resistance test, counting on a correction of 30-35 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish sentiment.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger bands
Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0865. A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0825 will increase pressure on the euro.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
