USD/JPY
The US stock market (S&P 500) lost 0.21% on Thursday due to weak economic data: the volume of orders for durable goods fell by 17.2% in April, the second estimate of GDP for the first quarter was revised down from -4.8 % to -5.0% against an unchanged forecast (i.e. -4.8%). The Japanese Nikkei 225 index is down 0.65% today in the Asian session. The currency pair itself, following the stock market, turned down from the signal level of 107.78 yesterday and approached the support of the embedded price channel line (107.37) this morning, overcoming which will allow the price to fall to the MACD indicator line (107.12), then, in case it leaves the area under the MACD line, to the target level of 106.75.
The price has consolidated below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. The probability of the bears' success, that is, overcoming the support of 107.37 is 62-65%.
