To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:
In the first half of the day, a rather interesting signal was formed for the sale of the British pound, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears achieved a breakout of the support of 1.2522, and the repeated test of this level from the bottom up became the starting point for opening short positions, which have already led to an update of the minimum of 1.2453. The bulls need to protect this area. The Bank of England's decision on interest rates further discouraged investors from opening long positions, as it was quite expected and coincided with all the forecasts of economists. On the 5-minute chart, you can see how the bulls have already formed one rebound of about 30 points from the support of 1.2453, however, a repeated test of this area may lead to a breakdown. Therefore, you should not rush to open long positions in this range. It is best to wait for the update of the larger lows of 1.2376 and 1.2290 and buy the pound there immediately for a rebound in the expectation of correction of 30-40 points within the day. An equally important task for the bulls will be to regain the resistance of 1.2522 since only this scenario will allow the market to maintain hope for a recovery of the pound in the short term.
To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:
The pressure on the pound has increased, and the bears have a great chance to resume a downward correction. A break in the support of 1.2522 and active sales at the low of 1.2354 may lead to a larger decline in the pair in the second half of the day. Bears need to gain a foothold below the level of 1.2354, since only in this scenario can you increase short positions in the pair and wait for the update of the minimum of 1.2376, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-term target of the bears remains the area of 1.2290, which coincides with the beginning of the June bullish trend. In the case of an upward correction of GBP/USD in the afternoon, it is best to return to short positions only when a false breakdown is formed in the resistance area of 1.2522, and you can sell the pound immediately for a rebound from a maximum of 1.2591 per 30-40 points correction by the end of the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is below the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates that the bear market will continue in the short term.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
If the pound rises, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2525 will act as a resistance.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
