To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
The British pound was in the side channel all day yesterday, creating excellent buy and sell signals, I mentioned the probability of it in my forecast. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember my review from yesterday afternoon, you will see how the bulls tried to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.2503 for the third time, which they managed to do. After that, a signal was formed to buy the British pound, which continues to work out at the moment. Demand for the pound will remain as long as trade is conducted above 1.2508, and forming the next false breakout there will be an additional signal for opening long positions. Today, bulls will initially aim for resistance at 1.2585, a break which will provide GBP/USD with a more powerful upward momentum with a high of 1.2676, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound returns to the area of 1.2508, and this can happen against the background of the absence of important fundamental statistics today, it is best to consider new long positions after updating yesterday's large support area at 1.2435, counting on a rebound of 30-40 points by the end of the day. It is also necessary to remember that the British pound's situation is rapidly changing in favor of buyers. The COT report states that last week short non-commercial positions were reduced from 52,941 to 45,376. At that time, long non-commercial positions sharply rose from 28,893 to 29,379. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -15,998, against -24,048, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Pound sellers will try their best to regain the 1.2508 area, consolidating below which will be an excellent signal to open short positions. The goal will be to return GBP/USD yesterday's major support at 1.2435 and its breakout, since consolidating below this level will be a turning point and will return the bearish momentum to the market, which can lead to updating lows 1.2381 and 1.2334, where I recommend taking profit. If the bulls continue to bend their line, then most likely the sales will have to be postponed until the resistance test of 1.2585, subject to forming a false breakout, but I advise you to open short positions immediately for a rebound only after updating last week's high in the area of 1.2676 while expecting a rebound of 30-40 points by the end of the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the pound in the short term.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger bands
A break of the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.2560 will lead to a new wave of pound growth. Pressure will be limited by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2465.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
