To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Buyers of the pound achieved their goal yesterday and reached the previously indicated resistance levels, forming a good signal to open long positions, which I paid attention to in my review for the second half of the day. Let's look at it in more detail. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how after the bulls' first entry into the market in the middle of the European session, buyers did not hesitate and did a similar trick at the beginning of US trading from the 1.2668 level, which only added optimism to the market and led GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.2742. From this level, the bears tried to build a downward correction, which was only fully implemented in the Asian session. At the moment, it is very important for the bulls to take control of the resistance of 1.2737, since consolidating it will be a signal for opening long positions in the pound in order to continue growth to the high of 1.2809, where I recommend taking profits. The long-term target is the resistance of 1.2906. However, be careful with purchasing at highs, as a bearish divergence may form on the MACD indicator. It is best to look at buying the pound after a downward correction from the support of 1.2676, where the moving averages also pass, but only if a false breakout is formed there. I recommend buying GBP/USD for a rebound only from the low of 1.2625, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Let me remind you that the COT report for July 14 indicated that there was an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 56,300 to the level of 56,761 during the week. Long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 39,892 to the level of 43,175. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -13,568, against -16,408, which indicates that the market is still under pressure, but there are fewer who are willing to sell.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Sellers have a great chance to return to the market, but it takes some hard work. First of all, you need to prevent a breakout of the 1.2737 resistance and form a false breakout on it, which will be the first signal to open short positions. The purpose of such an entry is for support at 1.2676, consolidating below it will only increase the pressure on the pound, which will lead to a complete overlap of yesterday's growth and updating the low of 1.2625, where I recommend taking profits. With the growth of GBP/USD above the resistance of 1.2737 in the first half of the day, you can hope for a divergence to form on the MACD indicator, which can occur immediately after updating yesterday's high. The upper border of the Bollinger indicator is also located there. If there are no sellers at this level, I advise you to postpone short positions until the high is updated at 1.2809, or sell the pound immediately on a rebound from the resistance of 1.2906, counting on a correction of 30-40 points by the end of the day.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the advantage of buyers of the pound remains.
Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A break in the lower border of the indicator around 1.2680 will increase the pressure on the pair. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.2765.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
