GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD currency pair also settled below the ascending channel on the first trading day of the week, which means that the trend has changed to a downward one. In addition, the pair's quotes are also pinned below the critical Kijun-sen line, so we can say that the sellers of the British pound have much more clearly defined their position than the sellers of the euro, who failed to develop their success. The bulls never managed to overcome the resistance area of 1.2668–1.2688, and three attempts were made. Thus, we now expect a new downward trend to form, at least in the short term. The question is, will the bears have enough strength and fundamental grounds to start a powerful downward movement? As we have already said, the fundamental backgrounds of the euro/dollar and the pound/dollar are different.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, which means the beginning of a downward movement in the most short-term plan. Thus, two timeframes at once speak in favor of changing the trend to a downward one. As for the latest COT report, it turned out to be absolutely logical and reflects the essence of what is currently happening in the currency market for the pound/dollar pair. Professional traders opened 6,743 Buy-contracts and as many as 12 sell-contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the total net position in the commercial category immediately increased by 6,700. But the category of commercial market participants actively closed both Sell and Buy contracts. At the same time, Buy in much larger quantities. However, as we can see, this did not affect the overall strengthening of the British currency. Thus, the COT report speaks in favor of further strengthening the British currency. However, we remind you that any forecast based on a COT report must be confirmed (usually technical). At this time, the technical picture is such that it is more reasonable to expect a movement down.
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair did not change on the first trading day of the new week, as no fundamentally new and important information was available to traders on July 13. As we have already found out in the fundamental reviews, we should not expect traders to strongly react towards the US inflation report, and to reports on GDP and industrial production in the UK. But information continues to arrive about the balance of forces in the election race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. We have already written that at the moment, Biden leads in the polls by 6-10% on average across all states in the US. But we also said that due to the peculiarities of the electoral system in America, the results of voting in the so-called "wavering" states will be of great importance. According to the latest information, the Democratic candidate is ahead of Trump in at least two of these states, which were won by Trump in 2016. We are talking about Florida and Texas. The situation in Arizona is also very controversial. It should be noted that these three states are "severely affected" by the coronavirus epidemic and many sociologists believe that the opinion of their residents can be very strongly influenced by the COVID-2019 pandemic, on a large scale, which many blame it on Trump, who initially did not attach much importance to it, and until recently even refused to wear a medical mask, thus not setting the right example to Americans.
There are two main scenarios as of July 14:
1) The bullish outlook dramatically worsened at the start of the new trading week. At this time, the pair's purchases are already impractical and not recommended, as there are several technical signals at once to complete the upward movement. Thus, we recommend returning to the purchase of the British pound no earlier than overcoming the resistance area 1.2668-1.2688. The goal in this case is the resistance level of 1.2791. Potential Take Profit in this case will be about 90 points.
2) For sellers, you are advised to trade lower for support with a support level of 1.2497 and Senkou Span B line (1.2422), since the Kijun-sen line is left behind. Today's reports on UK GDP and US inflation are unlikely to fundamentally change the mood of traders, however, do not lose sight of them. There may be surprises. Potential Take Profit range from 40 to 120 points.
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