The hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.
On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair has been trading in the same narrow side channel for the past two days. Thus, as of Monday morning, the technical picture of the pair has not changed. Despite the downward movement of the price (extremely weak), the MACD indicator has not yet formed a sell signal. If it turns down in the near future, novice traders may even try to work out this signal with the goal of the lower line of the side channel (indicated in the illustration). However, it should be understood that trading in the flat is not the most pleasant and convenient activity. However, you can earn about 30-40 points on this signal. Then everything will depend on which border of the side channel the price will go through. If through the upper one, we can expect a resumption of movement to the level of 1.1903 or slightly higher. If through the lower one, we can expect a further fall to the level of 1.1700. In sum, these two levels also represent the boundaries of a side channel.
On September 7, novice traders will have absolutely nothing to pay attention to. The calendar of macroeconomic events is empty. Approximately the same picture will be tomorrow. Except for the second-quarter Eurozone GDP report in the second estimate. Thus, the first two trading days of the new week can be as calm and low-volatility as possible. On the other hand, the pair has been trading actively in recent months and it is not based on macroeconomic statistics. On Friday, for example, three major reports on Nonfarm Payrolls, wages, and the unemployment rate were published in America, however, the market reaction was extremely weak. Actually, it fits into the narrow side channel, which was discussed above. The fundamental background remains far from the most attractive for the US dollar, so perhaps market participants will not need any statistics to resume active trading at the beginning of the week. In the coming days, it is possible that there will be news from Donald Trump, on the "coronavirus", on the US-China confrontation, on the adoption of a new package of financial assistance to the American unemployed and businesses. There is a lot of potential news. Thus, we recommend that you determine the activity/non-activity of the market by the strength of the pair's movement and by finding quotes inside a small side channel.
As of September 7, the following scenarios are possible:
1) Buying a pair at this time is not recommended for novice traders, since the pair is fixed below the upward trend line, thus, the trend is now more downward. However, if the price manages to get out of the side channel through its upper border, then the upward movement can resume and you can consider options for long positions. The goal is 1.1903-1.1912.
2) Sales now still look more relevant. First, you can try to work out the lower line of the side channel if the MACD indicator turns down. The goal is 1.1790. Secondly, you can try to work out the lower limit of the senior side channel - around the level of 1.1700, if the price gets out of the small channel through its lower border. Thus, now novice traders just need to wait for the formation of new signals, and the trading strategy is defined. The main thing is to remember that today trading can be calm and weakly volatile.
What's on the chart:
Price support and resistance levels – levels that are targeted when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which way it is preferable to trade now.
Up/down arrows – indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.
MACD indicator(10,20,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend constructions (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.
Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com