The fact that Scotland wants to separate from the UK is no longer a secret. The question is not even in the UK itself, but in its withdrawal from the European Union, in which the Scots would very much like to remain. This is the main problem of the conflict that has arisen. The Scottish people voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU in the 2016 British general referendum. However, the majority of Englishmen (who generally outnumber the Scots) voted "yes" to Brexit. Scotland did not want to leave the EU, but as it is a member of the United Kingdom of Great Britain, it had to do so. The most absurd and ridiculous thing is that Scotland is simply unlucky. In 2014, there was already an independence referendum, but then the Scottish people voted to remain in Britain. Who knew that in two years London would decide to leave the Alliance? As a result, Edinburgh was at an extreme disadvantage. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has changed and Scotland will benefit from returning to the EU. However, to do this, you first need to leave the UK and the referendum has already taken place. After all, Boris Johnson is essentially right. Legal referendums cannot be held every five years. In a referendum, the majority will vote against this initiative, and in five years the government will again organize a referendum.
However, this does not mean that Edinburgh will abandon the idea of leaving the UK. Because this is the desire not only of the government but also of the people of the country themselves. All opinion polls and social studies have shown that the Scottish people did not want to leave the EU. Thus, there is no doubt that the Scots support their government in the person of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish National Party. Nicola Sturgeon has already made several requests to London for the legal right to hold a new referendum, but each time was refused. However, on May 6, Scotland will hold elections to the local parliament, in which the SNP can win a resounding victory. The opposition in Scotland also exists in the form of the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democratic Party. The next election will show what opinion the majority of Scots hold. Most experts agree that it is the desire of the people that can play a decisive role in the confrontation between Edinburgh and London. And the stronger the civic position and power of Nicola Sturgeon's party becomes, the more likely it is to hold a referendum. Most experts agree that the referendum will be held in 2021.
Well, the results of the referendum are unlikely to surprise anyone. If Edinburgh manages to defend its right to a referendum (although it is now difficult to imagine under what circumstances London will concede on this issue), then Scotland will most likely leave the Kingdom. Then we will not care about Scotland anymore. We will worry about what will remain of the UK, which may not become "great" at all after two "exits". Scotland is a third of the territory of the United Kingdom and 1/10 of the total number of inhabitants. It is easy to calculate that the British economy may lose another 20-30% due to the exit of Scotland. Of course, so far talk about a referendum is more talk than concrete action. Therefore, buyers of the British pound have nothing to worry about yet. However, if a referendum is agreed and called, the pound could potentially lose 15-20% of its value. In principle, from the moment the date of the referendum is announced, you can start selling the pound sterling. Such is the bleak prospects for the British currency in 2021.
We should also not forget that for the British pound, the fourth quarter of 2020 and 2021 will almost completely end "in the red". It is now the pound that continues to grow presumably due to two factors:
1) A stronger drop in the US economy in the second quarter;
2) A huge amount of money poured into the US economy has increased the supply of this currency.
However, these two factors cannot permanently affect the pound/dollar pair. As we have already mentioned in other reviews, the pair can not even adjust normally for 3-4 months. And if the British economy continues to stall in 2021 and instead of economic recovery, we will see negative GDP values or zero growth, then sooner or later the pound will send to conquer the south.
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