EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair during the last trading day performed a rebound from the level of 161.8% (1.1772), a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the level of 1.1820. However, at the moment, the pair's quotes have returned to the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1772). Thus, a new rebound will work in favor of the new growth of the pair, closing under this level will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next level of 1.1715. In general, the US dollar continues to grow, which is visible on the chart. The downward trend corridor keeps traders' mood "bearish". Although it should also be recognized that the information background is now extremely confusing and ambiguous. For example, in the European Union, there are still serious problems with vaccines and the growth of diseases in some countries, and the pace of economic recovery has stalled all winter, and now it may begin to stall due to a new, third wave of coronavirus.
In the US, the recovery is in full swing, and the US Congress, along with Joe Biden, are ready to pour trillions of dollars into the economy, just to make it grow at full speed. There are already rumors that a new $ 2 trillion to $ 4 trillion aid package will be approved by the summer. If so, then only in the first half of 2021, the American economy will receive about $ 6 trillion. At the same time, Jerome Powell said last week that the bond repurchase program will be gradually reduced as soon as the economy shows a consistently high recovery rate, and inflation reaches the target values. Although this statement can be regarded as "hawkish", yet Powell said only that he regularly repeats in recent years. It is clear to everyone that when the economy recovers and inflation rises, monetary policy will begin to tighten. Powell did not say that the Fed intends to wind down the QE program in the near future.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a fall to the level of 1.1836 and consolidation under it. Thus, the probability of a further drop in quotes has increased in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729). This is the first goal. Closing the pair's rate below this level will increase the probability of a further fall towards the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the fall can now be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). The general mood of traders remains "bearish".
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 26, there were no important events or reports in the European Union. The data from the US did not arouse much interest among traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On March 29, the calendar of economic events in the European Union and the United States is empty, so the influence of the information background will be absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be much calmer this time. The Non-commercial category of traders got rid of 1,766 long contracts and 953 short contracts during the reporting week. The numbers are very small, so I would say that there is almost no change. In general, over the past month, bull traders have strongly lost their positions, as a large number of long contracts were closed and short contracts were opened. If at the beginning of February the gap between the number of long and short contracts was threefold, at the moment, it is less than twofold.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to sell the pair if a close is made under the area of 1.1822-1.1836 with targets of 1.1772 and 1.1729 (1.1705). The first goal is achieved. Closing below the level of 1.1772 will allow you to keep selling with the second goal. Purchases of the pair are not recommended today, as there was no clear rebound from the level of 1.1772.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com