Even rumors that the European Union may impose a ban on the supply of coronavirus vaccines to the UK, in general, did not affect the pound, which stood still all yesterday. Although the European Union may well do this, since one of the largest factories that produces the AstraZeneca vaccine is located in Belgium. The European Union wants the vaccine to be delivered primarily to continental Europe. However, the market did not react to this in any way. Such a step seems too radical, and it is difficult to believe that such a thing can happen.
Today, the fate of the pound depends on the data on the labor market, the forecasts for which were significantly revised for the better. At the end of last week, it was assumed that the situation in the labor market would clearly deteriorate. Now, we can talk about a certain moderate optimism. While the unemployment rate itself should remain unchanged, wage growth may accelerate. So, if we look at the average wage, its growth rate should accelerate from 4.1% to 4.3%. If we take average salaries, including bonuses and overtime, the growth rate can accelerate from 4.7% to 4.8%. If the forecasts are confirmed, it means that consumer activity will only grow, which, against the background of its decline in Europe and the United States, looks really great. So, the pound may strengthen its position somewhat.
Unemployment rate (UK):
The GBP/USD currency pair kicked off the trading week with a market stagnation in the range of 1.3816/1.3875, without showing any speculative activity. A sideways price fluctuation is very similar to a cumulative process, followed by a natural acceleration in the market.
The market dynamics following the flat reduced activity to a minimum, which may interest speculators in terms of getting out of stagnation.
If we proceed from the current location of the quote, the market participants, as before, follow within the boundaries of the lateral amplitude.
Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is worth highlighting the correction move from the peak of the medium-term trend of 1.4224, in the structure of which the current quote moves.
In this situation, the most optimal trading tactic is considered to be the method of breaking one or another border of the side channel 1.3816/1.3875, working on the outgoing surge of activity. This method is perfect for speculators due to the short-term effect.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, it can be seen that a sell signal is held for an hourly and daily period, due to the price movement within the base of the correction move.
