EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the European currency and closed above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1772), as well as above the downward trend corridor. As a result, the quotes increased to the level of 1.1820, from which they have now performed a rebound. Thus, traders can expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the level of 1.1772. Closing the pair above the level of 1.1820 will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1873). On Monday, the information background for the pair was not too strong. Much weaker than on Friday. However, Friday's statistics from America have already remained in history, and traders have not remembered it. The growth of quotes began yesterday in the second half of the day, thus, it is logical to assume that it was connected with America. However, in the US, the ISM Services PMI and the Markit Services PMI were released. Both exceeded traders' expectations, so they should have caused the US dollar to rise, not fall. Thus, the economic statistics of Friday and Monday did not cause a reaction from traders. The European currency showed growth, despite problems with vaccination and the third wave of coronavirus. And if the growth of the last few days is not an accident, then we can assume that traders have tuned in to new long-term purchases of euros for dollars. Today it's even easier. There are no reports or speeches in the calendar of economic events at all. Only unemployment in the EU, which is also likely to be ignored.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes rebounded from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729), turned in favor of the euro currency, and began the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.1836. Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 1.1836 will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair consolidated under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the fall can now be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). However, a close above the level of 261.8% will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth of the pair.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 5, the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty. In the US, a fairly important ISM index was released, which did not have any impact on traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - unemployment rate (09:00 UTC).
On April 6, there will be even less news. In the European Union, the unemployment rate will come out, and in the United States – nothing at all. There will be no background information today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be "talking" this time. During the reporting week, traders of the "Non-commercial" category (the most important) opened 34 long contracts and 25,045 short contracts. Thus, even analyzing the behavior of speculators now makes no sense. Everything is clear enough. The mood of major traders continues to become more "bearish", as evidenced by the regular increase in the number of short contracts and a decrease in the number of long contracts. Thus, in the perspective of the daily chart, the fall in the quotes of the euro/dollar pair may continue. But the new downward trend may turn out to be quite long, so do not expect a drop in the next few weeks by another 300-500 points. Everything will happen gradually.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I do not recommend selling the pair now, as it seems that an upward trend is beginning. Purchases of the pair were recommended with targets of 1.1820 and 1.1873 if traders manage to close over the downward trend corridor on the hourly chart. I recommend making new purchases when closing above the level of 1.1820.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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