GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a drop to the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.4136) and even slightly lower yesterday. In the second half of the day, growth followed, and this morning a new reversal was made in favor of the US currency, and the quotes are again in the process of falling in the direction of the lower border of the side trend corridor and the level of 161.8%. In general, the pair continues to move inside the sideways corridor, so I characterize the current mood of traders as "neutral." Yesterday, in the UK, the information background was extremely poor, and in the US, you could only pay attention to the Fed's economic review "Beige Book." Let me remind you that this review consists of economic data from 12 Federal Reserve banks in the country. Yesterday's review provided information about the excellent pace of economic recovery after the crisis. The pandemic noted the positive impact of vaccination of the population and the easing of quarantine restrictions on the economy. Among the disadvantages were failures in the supply chains of goods and raw materials. Also, in the "Beige Book," it was said that the demand for labor would remain strong. However, the labor market is only in the middle of its recovery, and this process is not fast. Wages will grow at a moderate pace. Representatives of all 12 Federal Reserve banks believe that economic growth will remain stable. Thus, this information can be considered positive for the US currency. But it is still extremely difficult to oppose anything to the euro and the pound. All charts, except for the hourly chart, clearly show upward trends that are not going to end at the moment. And if so, then there is no reason for strong sales of the Briton yet.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 0.0% (1.4240), turned in favor of the US dollar, and began the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.4003. The upward trend corridor continues to indicate the bullish mood of traders. The consolidation of the pair's rate above 1.4240 will increase the chances of the continued growth of the British dollar.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, everything still rests on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes of the pound/dollar pair continues. Closing quotes under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process will continue at the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no interesting events or reports in the UK and US on Wednesday, and the "Beige Book" did not impact the US currency. The information background was extremely weak.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - change in the number of employees from ADP (12:15 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
US - ISM service sector PMI (14:00 UTC).
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (16:00 UTC).
On Thursday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contain several important entries, particularly the speech of Andrew Bailey.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of May 25 on the British dollar showed that speculators' "bullish" mood has become stronger. Thus, the British dollar can also continue its growth, although it has been trading extremely boring in the last two weeks. During the reporting week, speculators opened only 936 long contracts, but at the same time, reducing the number of short contracts on their hands by 4,693 units. I also note that, unlike the European currency, interest in the British dollar is declining among all categories of traders. In total, they closed 8 thousand contracts during the week.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar are recommended today if there is a rebound from the level of 1.4136 on the hourly chart or the lower border of the side corridor with the target of 1.4216. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling if the daily chart closes below the trend line.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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