The wave counting on the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument remains rather ambiguous, since at the moment two corrective trend sections have already been built and, most likely, the construction of the third, downward trend, has begun. That is, at this time, not only the correction waves alternate, but also the corrective sections of the trend. At this time, wave a of the new downward trend has supposedly completed its construction. If this is indeed the case, then the instrument proceeded to the construction of wave b, the targets of which can be located 100-150 points higher. You need to be prepared that wave b will turn out to be about the same size as wave a. After the end of wave b, I expect a new decline in the instrument within wave c, although the entire trend section may take a five-wave form. In general, the current wave counting is beyond doubt. The very nature of the movement of the instrument raises doubts. Corrective structures are always more difficult to work out than impulse structures, and this is the main problem.
The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Thursday was weak again. There were a lot of economic reports during the day, and all of them were from America. Perhaps the most important was the first quarter GDP report in the final assessment. However, there were no changes compared to the second assessment, so the markets did not react to it in any way. As a result, GDP grew by 6.4%, which is quite a lot, but the dollar did not derive any profit for itself from this strong growth of the American economy. There was also a report on orders for long-term goods, the volume of which increased by 2.3% MoM. But only here the markets expected to see an increase of 2.9% MoM. Therefore, the US dollar did not receive support from the market after this report. The balance of trade in goods for May was also released, which turned out to be more deficient than the markets expected. And also - a report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which turned out to be more than the markets expected to see. Thus, the entire package of statistics from America turned out to be moderately negative. The range of movements during the day for the Euro/Dollar instrument remained weak, only about 16 points. It seems that there were no statistics at all. However, this was to be expected. Wave b, if it really is, would hardly have turned out to be "fast", given how long the supposed wave a was built. And it began its construction, let me remind you, on May 25th. Thus, the systematic increase in quotes may continue for another week.
Based on the analysis, I still expect the instrument quotes to go up, but now within the framework of corrective wave b. The purchases of the European currency can be carried out with targets located around the levels of 1.1984 and 1.2051, which corresponds to 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up".
The wave counting of the new upward trend section is not entirely unambiguous, however, at this time, it is presumably completed and has taken on a three-wave form. Thus, now I am expecting the construction of three downward waves, the first wave may already be nearing its completion, and the second is in the process of its construction.
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