Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was trading in a bad and unappealing manner on Wednesday. This is clearly seen on the 5-minute timeframe, where at night and in the European session there was a clear flat that could confuse novice traders, and then a sharp downward movement began, which very soon gave way to an upward pullback. And all this without a single macroeconomic report or event during the day. Of course, traders could have been drawn to the European Commission's report on economic development for the next couple of years. According to this report, the European Commission expects higher economic growth rates than a few months ago, as well as higher inflation. That is, in theory, this information could support the euro, but yesterday we drew attention to the fact that this report is unlikely to be worked out. The same applies to the Federal Reserve's minutes in the evening. We do not even remember the last time the Fed minutes provoked strong market reactions, although, of course, this is possible. However, in any case, we recommend that novice traders exit all transactions until evening and night. So at the moment all positions should be closed anyway. But a downward trend line has finally appeared on the 30-minute timeframe, which at least somehow indicates a downward trend.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Several signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe during the day, but since there were just all kinds of movements, it was very difficult to work out these signals. In principle, novice traders could not enter the market at all today, since there was a clear, low-volatility flat during the Asian and European sessions. Movements began at the US session. First, the price surpassed the levels 1.1807-1.1800, which could serve as a signal to sell. However, at that time, the quotes had already gone down 40 points after it stood in one place for the first half of the day. And there were no important events. Therefore, it was already possible to be on alert here, but nevertheless, newcomers had the right to open short positions here. The price bounced off the nearest level, allowing it to earn about 5 points on a short position and immediately open long positions, which should have been closed in the area of 1.1800-1.1807, since the price could not go higher. That is, beginners could earn another 5-10 points of profit on this signal. In general, not a bad result, given the nature of the movement on Wednesday.
Trading tips for Thursday:
The downward trend persists and a downtrend line has finally formed on the 30-minute timeframe. However, the very nature of the movement due to this line did not change at all. It is still weak and uncertain. Thus, the signals of the MACD indicator can now be considered, but first you need to let it discharge to the zero level. The 30-minute chart clearly shows that the pair has been in a 120-point horizontal channel for the last six days. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1786, 1.1807, 1.1800, 1.1835 and 1.1851. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. The European Union will publish the European Central Bank's monetary policy report on Thursday, which is about the same importance as today's European Commission report. In America, the report on claims for unemployment benefits is absolutely secondary.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com