The wave counting on the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument has become more complex over the last working day of the last week. The news background, which led to a rather sharp decline in the instrument's quotes, will be analyzed below. In the meantime, I pay attention to that moment, the quotes dropped to the low of the previous wave c and even a few basic points below. Thus, the entire wave counting of the downward trend section has now been transformed into a five-wave structure. Of course, correctional a-b-c-d-e type. If this is indeed the case, then the last wave e is already nearing its end. And it can end between the low of wave c and the 100.0% Fibonacci level. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1704 mark will indicate that markets are not ready for new sales of the European currency and are ready to build a new upward trend. I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that in 2021, the euro/dollar instrument only builds corrective trend sections and only within the range of 1.1700-1.2350. Thus, as long as quotes remain within this area, it is very difficult to expect an impulsive trend plot.
Last Friday, the news background for the euro/dollar instrument was very strong and interesting. All the news of the day came from America and the markets, without false modesty, were waiting for them from the very beginning of the week. The most interesting was the NonFarm Payrolls report, which shows how many new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector during the month. This report is considered the most important after, perhaps, only GDP or inflation. However, since the Federal Reserve has recently clearly outlined its position, stating that the priority goal is the full recovery of the labor market, then the NonFarm Payrolls report is the most important right now. And the value of 943,000 definitely pleased the markets. However, not only the July value was really strong. The June value of Payrolls was revised upwards from 850,000 to 938,000. Thus, over the past two months, the number of jobs in the US economy has grown by almost 2 million. Obviously, such data could not but cause the growth of the US currency. Especially when coupled with the report on unemployment, which fell from 5.9% to 5.4%. Thus, the optimism of the dollar bulls on Friday spilled out, which led to a decrease in the instrument and the need to make certain adjustments to the wave markup. No important news and reports were received on the markets on Monday. The amplitude during the day did not exceed 15 points.
Based on the performed analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave c is completed, however, the construction of the downward trend section has resumed. Now I expect the end of the construction of wave e and the entire trend area near the 1.1704 mark, which equates to 100.0% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through this level will indicate that the markets are ready for further sales of the instrument. In this case, wave e can take on a more complex and extended form, and it will be possible to sell the instrument with targets near 1.1551, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci.
Major scale wave counting looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last part of the trend quite unexpectedly began to take on a more complex form, but it can still end in the near future.
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