After the recent collapse of 16%, the bitcoin audience has lost more than $4 billion. This provoked a certain reorientation of values and cooled the ardor of the retail audience. The on-chain indicators of the coin have changed significantly, and the MicroStrategy management has unloaded 30% of the options received as bonuses. There are signs of an on-chain shake-up on the market, which indicates a certain recovery. At the same time, an increased information background has begun to form around bitcoin, and this may negatively affect the price movement in the near future.
First of all, let's analyze the current situation around bitcoin. Over the past day, the asset has risen by 1.5% and as of 14:00 UTC is trading above the $47K mark. At the same time, the total capitalization of the coin sank to $886 billion, and trading volumes returned to pre-rally indicators. At the same time, a powerful drop in the realized profit/loss indicator, which reached the data of the end of June, played into the hands of the bulls. Roughly speaking, this indicates that the main investor of bitcoin has changed, and part of the former audience moved coins (sold, transferred to altcoin) at a loss. Refreshing the audience at the current stage of growth is a positive sign and can give the coin a new impetus. In addition, the collapse of the cryptocurrency contributed to the elimination of the divergence between the real value of BTC and the number of unique addresses in the asset's network. All these signs are bullish in nature and may indicate a further phase of consolidation and a new bullish rally.
However, the market may step on the same rake that JPMorgan experts warned about. There is a high probability that bitcoin can test the support mark at $42.6K due to social sentiment. Despite the collapse, the main thesis that is walking in the network is that you need to buy off bitcoin at the bottom. This indicates the expectation of the retail audience of an early price rebound back, above $50K. In simple words, retailers create the possibility of an unintended "pump", which will result in price declines and colossal losses for investors.
This scenario is supported by several important factors. First of all, this is the bitcoin audience, which, despite the oval, consists of large companies that play for a long time. Over the past six months, whales have shown and proved that they like to manipulate the market and play with the mood of the crowd. It is also worth noting that the MVRV metric is still holding at 17%, which indicates that the majority of the audience is in the black. This can be considered another plus for large capital to continue the game of reducing to a local minimum. In any case, the situation will be resolved within a few days and it will become clear in which direction BTC is most likely to move.
For now, the best position would be to wait carefully, since, at this stage, the coin is in the accumulation stage. On the four-hour chart, bitcoin looks positive, and all indicators indicate the beginning of an upward movement. The asset will likely try to end the trading day above $47.5K. On the daily chart, the situation is less obvious. Despite the obvious positive of the RSI and stochastic, the MACD indicates a likely consolidation and subsequent accumulation.
On the weekly chart, the situation indicates a break in the medium-term trend, and the RSI and stochastic indicators signal the weakness of bitcoin. At the same time, the MACD continues to demonstrate the prerequisites for consolidation. Given the nature of the technical indicators of BTC, it can be understood that there is no obvious trend for growth, as well as for a fall, which indicates a likely period of consolidation. Therefore, in the event of a sudden rebound in the price upward, it is worth straining and carefully watching the emerging grin on the faces of the whales.
