For EUR/USD, a wave layout remains the same on a 4-hour chart. The trading instrument is still making daily moves of nearly 50 pips with seldom exception. All in all, the currency pair has gained almost 150 pips in the last 5 days. So, we suppose that the downward section has been complete. Its inner wave structure looks rather convincing. The wave structure of the expected wave e also looks rather feasible. The only thing that raises doubts is a feeble ongoing move away from the local lows. With such weak moves, traders will be poised to open short positions on EUR/USD again amid appropriate news background. In turn, it could complicate the whole downward section. Nevertheless, I consider the bullish outlook to be more probable. A failed attempt to break 76.4% Fibonacci level could indicate the beginning of a correctional downward wave 2 or b.
On Tuesday, the news background for EUR/USD was more interesting than the one on Monday. On August 31, market participants got to know inflation data for the EU which unexpectedly came in beyond the consensus. The EU CPI increased to 3.0% in August on year. Besides, the core CPI also surged to 1.6% y/y following a 0.7% climb in July. Thus, consumer inflation has been soaring in the euro block like in the US. Importantly, food and energy prices account for nearly half of the inflation figure. The core CPI excludes such component, so its score is much more modest. Nevertheless, demand for the single European currency grew on Tuesday that allowed EUR/USD to trade higher. The currency pair gained another 30-40 pips.
Let me remind you that the trading instrument is passing no more than 50 pips daily. For this reason, the wave layout stays roughly the same in a few recent weeks. Today, the consumer confidence index for August was posted in the US. In line with the consensus, the index fell to 113.8 in August from 129.1 in July. Earlier, the consumer sentiment index in the University of Michigan survey also went down significantly. EUR had solid chances to assert strength in the second half of the trading day. However, the market decided that EUR had strengthened more than usual for the 24 hours. The failed attempt to break 1.1836 dragged the price down by nearly 20 pips. Still, I believe that the market could succeed breaking this mark today or tomorrow so that traders will continue buying the pair.
Judging by the market review, I conclude that the downward section could come to an end at about 1.1703 that is 100.0% Fibonacci level. Now I still expect a series of upward waves to appear soon. I don't see any signs that the downtrend section could revive and get more complicated. Therefore, I would recommend planning long positions on EUR/USD with targets at around 1.1917, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci level, whenever MACD generates a bullish signal.
The wave layout on senior timeframes looks promising. I see 3 three-wave sections which are roughly equal in size. However, the last section unexpectedly turned more complicated and supposedly completed at almost the same level where the previous three-wave section was.
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