While bitcoin is resuming the consolidation period interrupted by the results of the Fed meeting, extremely encouraging theses about the future of the first cryptocurrency are being heard within the framework of the large-scale Bloomberg Financial Innovation investment forum. In the near future, Bitcoin may finally end competition with gold, protect against inflation and multiply its capitalization. The main stumbling blocks on the way to this are the SEC and the Bitcoin spot ETF.
The need to launch this product became one of the main theses of the last summit. Despite the record performance of the futures fund, the market is hungry for more. And taking into account the tapering of the stimulus program, Bitcoin needs a new powerful source of investment.
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor is confident that the launch of a spot exchange-traded fund on the first digital asset will lead to trillion-dollar investments and the complete absorption of precious metals, especially gold. According to Saylor, the ETF will become a new stage in the development of the digital asset market and will significantly increase the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a means of protection against inflation. He also stressed that the spot ETF is the way to the final stage of institutionalization of cryptocurrencies among traditional representatives of large capital.
As of November 5, the SEC commissioners have more than ten applications on the table to launch a full-fledged exchange-traded fund on bitcoin. In the information space, there are diametrically opposite rumors about the possible approval of the first application. There is an opinion that the spot fund will appear no earlier than 2022, and the main purpose of the SEC will be to approve a futures ETF on ETH.
At the same time, the SEC postponed consideration of the next application to launch Bitcoin ETF to December 2021, which gives players hope for the launch of the fund by the end of 2021. The main reason for optimism is the fact that the regulator gave feedback and asked Grayscale to explain the mechanisms for changing the product to a spot ETF.
However, it is most likely that a full-fledged fund will not be launched this year, since the SEC has already made its choice in favor of a futures fund, which is the lesser of the evils for the regulator. Having relieved the pressure, the state agency received a reprieve and reduced public pressure, and therefore the adoption of the fund's ETF on the spot market in 2021 is unlikely.
Despite this, all forecasts indicate that the coin will reach at least $100k. As of November 5, bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range of $60k-$64k, and despite the growth of investments among major players, the coin is in no hurry to break into the growth zone. Its price practically did not change over the past day and week, which indicates the continuation of the trend of fluctuations in the current range. In addition, in order to maintain and implement a healthy bullish momentum, the coin needs to collect liquidity from the dangerous range of $53k-$58k, where a trend reversal may occur. Despite this, the confident purchase of investors at these levels will allow Bitcoin to significantly add stability and form powerful pools of purchases outside the range of fluctuations.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is confidently entering the consolidation phase, but narrowing occurs and soon an upward trend or an aggravation of the correction may begin. The coin was moving through the resistance zone, but its bullish or bearish breakdown may occur soon. Most likely, the price will continue to decline within the current range, but the strength of the bears is not enough to make an exit through the lower boundary of the area. Technical indicators also signal the uncertainty of the trend, which indicates the continuation of the flat movement: the MACD is steadily going down, but the stochastic retains a local bullish mood. The relative strength index is already starting to move sideways, which indicates a lack of initiative on the part of the players.
On a narrower timeframe, the situation stabilizes, albeit within the framework of a local downward trend. In addition, the price is still moving under the supertrend line, which indicates the sellers' advantage. During the current day, buyers returned to the usual narrow range of $61.2k-$62.2k, but the price rested on the upper limits of the resistance area.
The technical picture is as uncertain as on the daily chart, which indicates weak audience activity at this stage. The MACD is moving below the zero mark with no claims for growth, and the stochastic is close to forming a bearish intersection, which indicates an aggravation of pressure from sellers.
Following the results of Friday, buyers tried to go beyond the local range of fluctuations in order to continue pushing prices to the upper limit of a wide consolidation range, but they ran into the sales shelf. Therefore, the price will continue to plow the expanses of the local corridor, without leaving which the development of the upper part of a wide area is impossible.
