Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair rose to the downtrend line, bounced off it and corrected slightly downwards on the 30-minute timeframe on Tuesday, November 9. Thus, the downward trend continued. Also, a sell signal was generated today, as the price bounced off the trend line, therefore, at the 30-minute TF, it was also possible to open trades for once. In our case, for short positions. As you can see, this signal turned out to be profitable, and the price went down about 65 points in total, which was more than enough to trigger Take Profit. Thus, before the price settles above the trend line, a downward movement will be preferable. As for the macroeconomic statistics, there were none today. Not in the UK, not in the US. But the fundamental background promised to be strong enough, but neither Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, nor Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech provoked any reaction from traders. However, we warned about this yesterday in our articles: all the most interesting from the central banks were announced last week.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture on Tuesday was almost perfect. A small number of trading signals were generated and almost all of them turned out to be profitable. Let's take a closer look at them. The first two signals were almost identical - the price bounced off the 1.3579 level. That is, a sell signal was formed, which should have been worked out with a short position. However, the price went down by only 10 points and returned to the level of 1.3579, and then overcame it. Therefore, the loss on the first trade was 17 points. Long positions should have been opened on a signal to overcome the level of 1.3579. And since the pair bounced off the next level 1.3606, they should have been closed near it. Profit - 13 points. Close and immediately open new short positions, as there was a rebound from the level of 1.3606. A little later, the pair broke through the level of 1.3579, that is, shorts had to be kept open. As a result, the price went down 75 points in total, so any Take Profit could have triggered this deal. As a result, novice traders could earn at least 50 points today.
How to trade on Wednesday:
At this time, the downward trend continues on the 30-minute timeframe. Therefore, in case of overcoming the level of 1.3517, the downward movement may continue with the next target of 1.3424. But overcoming the trend line may, on the contrary, signal a very likely growth of the British currency in the coming weeks. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3415, 1.3470, 1.3517, 1.3579, 1.3606, 1.3638. We recommend trading on them on Wednesday. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. Novice traders should only pay attention to the report on US inflation on November 10. The consumer price index threatens to rise to 5.7-5.8%, so the market reaction may follow immediately and be quite strong. There won't be anything interesting in the UK tomorrow.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com