Over the past year, we have regularly talked about the fact that the growth of bitcoin, like many stocks and other assets, is largely accidental. If there had been no pandemic, if there had not been trillions of dollars printed by central banks and created in their accounts, the markets would not have inflated like soap bubbles. Thus, bitcoin grew primarily not on increased demand with unchanged supply, but on the increased money supply, which had to be put somewhere. Formally, the demand for bitcoin (and many other assets) was growing. Therefore, its course also grew. But they did not grow based on fundamental factors. Not based on the fact that Bitcoin is getting better. Not on the basis that it displaces fiat money and becomes closer to the people. No, it is also an investment tool and, according to various analytical agencies, more than 80% of coins are already concentrated in the hands of large and institutional investors. Thus, when the Fed stops its QE program, the growth of bitcoin will have to at least stop, because the cash flow to the cryptocurrency market will stop. Accordingly, demand will stop growing. Perhaps, by the way, in this case, mass sales will not follow. First, because there will be no less money in the economy, only the growth of the money supply will stop. Second, because inflation should decrease first, and only then investors can think about transferring their capital from risky bitcoin to quieter and less profitable assets. After all, with inflation of almost 7%, hardly anyone is eager to invest in US Treasury bonds with their yield of 1.25-1.5%. Nevertheless, the "Fed factor", from our point of view, will stall the growth of the main cryptocurrency.
Robert Kiyosaki: markets may collapse due to "fake inflation".
A similar opinion is shared by the author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki. He believes that soon the value of precious metals, real estate, and cryptocurrencies may collapse down. This will happen because of the "fake inflation", which is managed by Jerome Powell and Joe Biden. "Collapse and depression are coming. It's time to get richer after the collapse of fake inflation," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter, who in the last few months has been calling for buying gold, silver, and bitcoin after the collapse. We would like to clarify right away that Kiyosaki had previously predicted a crash in October, which, as we see, did not happen. Thus, we recall that any forecasts should be treated very carefully. Technical confirmation of any fundamental hypothesis or any assumption is always required.
A very important event happened in the 24-hour timeframe. The quotes of the "bitcoin" are fixed below the ascending trend line, so the "bullish" trend is broken on the long-term TF. Consequently, the fall may continue. We have already outlined the goals in the previous article, they are also clearly visible in the illustration above. It should be noted that the price is also now below the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Therefore, the technical picture says an unambiguous "down" BTC.
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